Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is increasingly being buoyed by surging data consumption, even as growth in mobile subscriber numbers shows signs of slowing, highlighting a market shifting from rapid expansion to heavier usage by existing customers.
Industry figures for December 2025 show total active mobile subscriptions at 179.64 million, up slightly from 177.43 million in November.
Teledensity rose marginally to 82.87 percent from 81.84 per cent, but performance across 2025 remained uneven. After peaking earlier in the year, teledensity fell below 80 percent before recovering modestly, underscoring the difficulty operators face in adding new users in a market nearing saturation.
By contrast, demand for internet services has continued to accelerate. Broadband subscriptions climbed to 112.67 million in December, pushing penetration to 51.97 percent, up from 50.58 percent a month earlier. The figures point to deeper engagement by existing subscribers rather than a surge in new mobile connections.
This divergence is most visible in data traffic. Monthly internet consumption rose sharply to 1.39 million terabytes in December, from 1.24 million terabytes in November, capping a year of strong growth.
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According to a report by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the upward trend accelerated in 2025, with total data consumption projected to exceed 13.2 million terabytes for the year, about a 35 percent increase over 2024.
The regulator noted that daily traffic now averages more than 41,000 terabytes, intensifying pressure on network capacity nationwide.
Market structure data show that the gains from rising data usage are being captured largely by a few dominant players. MTN Nigeria retained its lead in December with 93.06 million subscribers, accounting for 51.87 percent of the market. Airtel followed with 33.94 percent, while Globacom held 12.39 percent. Smaller operators together accounted for less than two percent, leaving the top two firms controlling nearly 86 percent of total subscriptions.
Technology trends further reflect the sector’s transition from voice-led growth to data-driven demand. Fourth-generation networks accounted for 52.95 percent of connections by December 2025, reinforcing their role as the backbone of mobile internet access. However, second-generation services still supported 37.37 percent of users, highlighting affordability challenges, device constraints and uneven infrastructure rollout, particularly in rural areas. Third-generation usage declined to 5.91 percent, while fifth-generation adoption, though gradually increasing, remained limited at 3.77 percent.
Regulators say investment has helped cushion the strain created by rising traffic, even as service quality challenges persist.
Aminu Maida, NCC executive vice chairman, said more than $1 billion in industry investment in 2025 supported the deployment of over 2,850 new sites to expand coverage and capacity.
“In 2025, over $1 billion in industry investment resulted in the deployment of more than 2,850 new sites to expand both coverage and capacity,” Maida said, pointing to steady improvements in median download speeds and the strength of the 4G backbone.
However, he acknowledged that service quality remains uneven. “Quality of service today is not yet where we want it to be, but it is equally true that we are no longer where we used to be,” he added, noting that operators have committed to ramping up capital spending further in 2026.
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Mobile number portability data suggest a relatively stable subscriber base, with limited switching between networks. Monthly porting activity between September and December 2025 averaged between 1,300 and 1,600 transactions, with MTN attracting the largest share of incoming ports, followed by Globacom and Airtel. The muted switching indicates that competition is increasingly centred on data experience rather than aggressive subscriber acquisition.
At the policy level, pressure is mounting on operators to convert rising investment and data growth into tangible service improvements.
Bosun Tijani, federal minister of Communications and Digital Economy of Nigeria, has directed the NCC to implement automatic penalties for network failures within 90 days, as part of efforts to strengthen accountability and improve reliability for consumers.
Overall, the data point to a sector powering Nigeria’s digital economy, even as its traditional growth engine slows. While soaring data demand continues to mask the deceleration in mobile expansion, sustained progress will depend on easing network congestion, extending coverage to underserved areas, and resolving persistent challenges such as infrastructure vandalism and multiple taxation that continue to weigh on investment and service quality.
