Nigeria’s opportunity in the frontier technology revolution
By Precious Ebere-Chinonso Obi
Nigeria’s tech future is often imagined through a lens shaped by one alluring but potentially misleading idea: that frontier technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain will automatically catalyze inclusive development. This narrative, while optimistic, ignores a growing body of evidence suggesting that rapid technological adoption in developing economies may actually exacerbate existing inequalities rather than eliminate them.
Nigeria’s tech sector has indeed produced remarkable success stories. Paystack’s $200 million acquisition by Stripe and Flutterwave‘s $3 billion valuation represent genuine achievements. Yet these victories mask a troubling reality: the benefits of Nigeria’s digital revolution remain concentrated among urban elites, while 47% of Nigerians approximately 100 million people still lack internet access according to the Nigerian Communications Commission’s 2024 data.
The concept of technological leapfrogging assumes that developing nations can skip intermediate stages of development by adopting cutting-edge technologies. However, research from MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab suggests this assumption is fundamentally flawed. Their analysis of mobile money adoption across sub-Saharan Africa reveals that while these technologies can improve financial inclusion, they often require substantial complementary investments in education, infrastructure, and regulatory capacity that many developing nations struggle to provide.
Consider Nigeria’s healthcare sector, where AI-powered diagnostics are frequently touted as a panacea for our doctor shortage, one physician per 5,000 patients compared to the WHO’s recommended ratio of 1:600. Yet pilot programs in rural Kenya, which deployed AI diagnostic tools in remote clinics, found that without reliable electricity, internet connectivity, and trained technicians, these systems became expensive paperweights. Nigeria’s own National Health Insurance Scheme covers only 5% of the population, suggesting that technological solutions without accompanying systemic reforms may simply create new forms of exclusion.
Nigeria’s approach to frontier technology adoption reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the relationship between infrastructure and innovation. We consistently prioritize technological deployment over foundational infrastructure development, creating what economists call a “premature load bearing” problem.
The country’s power generation capacity of approximately 4,000 megawatts serves 220 million people less than South Africa generates for 60 million citizens. Blockchain systems, which require constant computational power, and AI applications, which demand significant processing capacity, cannot function reliably under these conditions.
Rather than acknowledging this constraint, policymakers continue to promote technological solutions that our infrastructure cannot sustain. This disconnect is not merely technical but political. Investing in power grids and fiber optic networks lacks the political glamour of launching AI initiatives or blockchain pilots. Yet without addressing these foundational gaps, Nigeria’s frontier technology ambitions will likely follow the pattern of previous technological initiatives, promising launches followed by quiet failures.
Emerging research from the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative challenges the assumption that technology naturally promotes inclusivity. Their 2023 study of fintech adoption across Nigeria reveals that while digital financial services have expanded access for middle-class urbanites, they have simultaneously created new barriers for rural populations who lack smartphones, reliable electricity, or digital literacy skills.
This pattern reflects what economists term “skill-biased technological change” the tendency for new technologies to disproportionately benefit those with existing advantages. In Nigeria’s context, AI and blockchain technologies require levels of digital literacy, infrastructure access, and financial resources that remain concentrated among urban elites. Without deliberate interventions to address these disparities, frontier technology adoption may actually widen Nigeria’s already substantial inequality gap.
The country’s Gini coefficient of 0.43 indicates significant income inequality, comparable to the United States. Rapid technological adoption without accompanying redistributive mechanisms could push this figure higher, as technology-enabled sectors capture increasing shares of economic value while traditional sectors stagnate.
Nigeria’s regulatory approach to frontier technologies reflects what political scientists call “innovation theater” the appearance of progressive technological governance without substantive reform. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s eNaira digital currency initiative, launched with considerable fanfare in 2021, has achieved minimal adoption rates despite significant government promotion. This outcome reflects a broader pattern of technology policies designed more for international signaling than domestic impact.
Meanwhile, truly transformative regulatory reforms such as liberalizing the telecommunications sector to increase competition and reduce data costs, or implementing transparent public procurement systems that could benefit from blockchain applications receive less attention because they threaten existing power structures.
Rather than pursuing frontier technology adoption for its own sake, Nigeria should focus on what development economists call “appropriate technology” innovations that match our current capacity constraints while building toward more advanced capabilities.
This approach would prioritize expanding basic digital infrastructure before deploying AI systems, strengthening regulatory institutions before implementing blockchain governance solutions, and building educational capacity before launching advanced technology training programs. Such a strategy may appear less ambitious than current approaches, but it offers more sustainable pathways to inclusive technological development.
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Estonia’s digital transformation, often cited as a model for developing nations, succeeded precisely because it followed this incremental approach. The country invested fifteen years building basic digital infrastructure, legal frameworks, and citizen digital literacy before implementing more advanced e-governance systems. Nigeria’s tendency to skip these foundational steps virtually guarantees that our technological ambitions will exceed our implementation capacity.
Nigeria’s frontier technology strategy requires a fundamental redefinition of success metrics. Rather than measuring progress through the number of AI systems deployed or blockchain platforms launched, we should focus on outcomes that matter for broad-based development: the percentage of citizens with reliable internet access, the reduction in rural-urban digital divides, and the extent to which technological innovations improve service delivery for Nigeria’s most marginalized populations.
This shift demands uncomfortable conversations about trade-offs and priorities. It means acknowledging that building reliable electricity grids may contribute more to Nigeria’s technological future than launching premature AI initiatives. It requires accepting that sustainable technological development is often slower and less glamorous than revolutionary rhetoric suggests.
Nigeria possesses genuine advantages in the global technology ecosystem, a large domestic market, entrepreneurial talent, and growing digital infrastructure in major cities. However, realizing these advantages requires moving beyond the mythology of technological leapfrogging toward more nuanced strategies that address our specific constraints and opportunities.
The frontier technology revolution offers Nigeria significant opportunities, but only if we approach it with clear-eyed realism about our current capabilities and systematic commitment to building the foundations that sustainable technological development requires. The alternative of continuing to pursue Innovation Theater while ignoring fundamental constraints risks turning our technological ambitions into sources of deeper inequality and missed development opportunities.
- Precious Ebere-Chinonso Obi is the CEO of Do Take Action, a nonprofit focused on educational equity in Nigeria.
