Nigeria’s 2026 Agric Growth Hinges On Policy, Technology, Others

The experts in separate interviews with Daily Independent agreed that Ni­geria’s agriculture sector has real op­portunities in 2026—but only if policy consistency, investment, technology and climate resilience are pursued in unison.

Without collective action, they warned, gains could be fragile and with it, Nigeria could significantly reduce staple food imports and move closer to sustainable food security.

Prince Oyewumi Oyedele Oye­tunde, Editor-in-Chief, Farmers Choice Magazine, notes that while official growth forecasts for agriculture are limited, the broader economy is projected to grow modestly in 2026, with GDP targets between 4.4 and 4.7 percent.

 According to him, this mac­roeconomic outlook could pro­vide a supportive environment for agricultural expansion if reforms are sustained.

He believes scaling food sovereignty initiatives—par­ticularly expanded wheat and staple crop programmes— could deepen domestic pro­duction and reduce reliance on imports.

Oyewumi also points to Na­tional Agricultural Investment Plans and FAO-backed policy monitoring tools as frame­works that can drive consis­tency and accountability.

He further argues that in­creased public-private partner­ships, investment in processing infrastructure and improved access to finance would un­lock productivity across value chains. Accelerating agritech adoption, including digital extension services, precision farming, mobile advisory platforms and solar-powered irrigation, he says, would modernise farming, reduce post-harvest losses and boost yields.

In his view, scaling cli­mate-smart agriculture—such as drought-tolerant seeds, irri­gation systems and weather-in­dexed insurance—alongside improved storage, cold chain and logistics systems would strengthen food security while raising rural incomes.

“With the right mix of pol­icy consistency, investment, technological adoption and climate resilience strategies, Nigeria’s agriculture sector has clear opportunities to improve productivity, reduce import dependency and strengthen food security,” Oyewumi said, stressing that all hands must be on deck.

Adebowale Onafowora, Managing Director of BIC Farms Concept, describes 2026 as a potential turning point, framing it as either the year of a “lean crisis” or a “green pivot.”

He warns that although sta­ple production may continue to grow, projections suggest that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecu­rity by mid-2026 due to conflict, post-harvest losses and high transportation costs.

He insists that 2026 must mark the end of rain-only farming, calling for institution­alised dry-season agriculture, decentralised irrigation sys­tems, greenhouses and con­trolled-environment farming.

Onafowora also highlights youth-led innovation as a ma­jor opportunity, urging Nigeria to stop treating agriculture as a retirement plan.

He advocates scaling initia­tives such as agrithons to drive agri-fintech, precision farming and urban hydroponics.

According to him, val­ue-chain sovereignty—through local processing of cassava and maize into feed and industrial starch—is critical to insulating the country from global shocks.

“We cannot celebrate mar­ginal growth when millions are projected to go hungry,” he said, adding that without a radical shift towards mechanisation, agritech and farmer security, Nigeria would only be manag­ing poverty rather than build­ing wealth.

For Oyewole Okewole, Se­nior Associate Consultant at FutuX Agri-consult Limited, projections for 2026 must focus on addressing the challenges that weakened Nigeria’s com­parative advantage in key val­ue chains in 2025.

He said that priority must be given to value addition, storage, post-harvest handling, processing and supply-chain infrastructure to reduce waste and improve farmers’ incomes.

Okewole stresses that en­terprises involved in exports and local processing should be supported, alongside improved access to affordable credit and modern, climate-smart farm­ing techniques.

He believes better manage­ment of inflation and food pric­es could result in a more posi­tive food price outlook in 2026.

On opportunities, Okewole expects more targeted agricul­tural programmes backed by strong policy support, includ­ing mechanisation, insurance, capacity development and sub­sidised inputs.

He also anticipates deep­er integration of technology, wider access to finance for smallholder farmers and agri­businesses, and stronger part­nerships between the Federal Government and internation­al organisations, noting that these interventions may gain momentum as 2026 approaches an election year.

Anibe Achimugu, Presi­dent, National Cotton Associ­ation of Nigeria (NACOTAN), expresses cautious optimism, saying implementation in 2026 must be deliberate, disciplined and focused.

He referenced projections by Nigeria’s fiscal planners and the World Bank, which expect GDP growth in the mid- 4 percent range, supported by agriculture, services and the non-oil sector.

For agriculture, he expects increased dry-season cultiva­tion, irrigation-led outputs, improved access to mechani­sation through service models, better targeting of inputs using credible farmer data and stron­ger private-sector participation in processing and storage.

Achimugu argues that Nige­ria must deliberately transition from seasonal to year-round farming by scaling irrigation and dry-season agriculture.

He calls for zonal mechani­sation centres to make equip­ment and extension services affordable for smallholders, alongside digitised farmer identities to eliminate ghost beneficiaries.

He also stressed the need for coordinated post-harvest and market systems, warning that productivity gains will not translate into food securi­ty without improved security. Linking cash crops to food se­curity, he noted will strengthen household resilience, particu­larly through coordinated cot­ton, textile and garment value chains.

Sunday Ezeobiora, National President of the Poultry Asso­ciation of Nigeria (PAN), also projects cautious optimism, saying that with proper govern­ment intervention, agriculture can drive economic diversifica­tion, job creation and industri­alisation.

He advocates aggressive, government-backed dry-sea­son production of maize and soya, noting that stabilising these commodities would help stabilise poultry prices, the most affordable protein for Ni­gerians.

He highlights opportunities in cold chain logistics and pro­cessing to reduce post-harvest losses, alongside youth and women empowerment pro­grammes to inject new energy into agribusiness.

Ezeobiora further points to AfCFTA and regional export opportunities for processed agricultural products, arguing that with the right standards, Nigeria could dominate the West African poultry market.

He stressed that food securi­ty requires prioritising staple crops and animal protein while protecting local farmers from unfair competition.

“If government, private sec­tor and farmers work hand in hand, 2026 can be the year Nige­ria makes decisive progress to­ward self-sufficiency,” he said.