Hurricane Melissa is scheduled to make landfall in Jamaica as a major hurricane within the next 24 hours, as it is now a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour.
The storm is expected to dump more than a foot of rain across most of the island nation, as the United States is likely to avoid a direct impact.
The projected path, as compiled by the National Hurricane Center, shows Melissa making landfall in Jamaica as a major hurricane on Tuesday. It is expected to pass over other Caribbean islands on Wednesday, weakening, and then move out to sea on Thursday. The storm will pass over Bermuda on Friday before moving out to sea as a post-tropical cyclone.
The U.S. does not appear likely to face a direct impact from Melissa.
The rainfall forecast shows that central Jamaica could receive 20-30 inches of rain, while the eastern edge of Jamaica, the west-central portion of the island, and much of southeastern Cuba could see 16-20 inches.
Rainfall totals of 12 to 16 inches are forecast in a small sliver of west-central Jamaica, much of southeastern Cuba, and parts of southwestern Haiti. A small sliver of west-central Jamaica, along with most of southern Haiti, the central part of the Dominican Republic, and parts of southeastern Cuba, could see between 8 and 12 inches of rain.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern and central Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.
The National Hurricane Center lists “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides” as likely effects of Melissa in Jamaica and Cuba. “A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday,” the NHC warned in its Monday morning update. “Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.”
In Cuba, a peak storm surge ranging from 6 to 9 feet is projected along the southeast coast. In addition to concerns from rainfall, storm surge and wind, Melissa is projected to bring “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” to the Caribbean islands.
