With strong signs already popping up in different places, the telecommunications industry may witness a shaking. The operators, with their backs to the wall, will continue to press for higher tariffs in order to remain in business
THE tech industry promises to be very interesting this year. It will bring excitement, it will also inflict pain. Nations will go after each other and try to sabotage each other’s growth where possible. Others will expand growth and dominance and even extend it to conquest as manifest display of strength. The weaklings will lap up the crumbs from the master’s table and remain ever so grateful in that beggarly position. But the world will continue on a swing, on a roll that has little accommodation for the laggard.
In a few days, Donald Trump will return to the White House as the President of the United States of America. He has been there before. He was also in show business. And he is well aware of the powers reposited in his person and office; there is no need swearing that he will take maximum advantage of such powers. Americans like to associate their President with chutzpah. Donald Trump is an embodiment of such euphoric feel.
His beef with China will continue. Under him America will not allow China to maintain a clear lead in niche technology like 5G and then 6G that is already dancing around the corner. Semiconductors will enjoy more attention and more coveted, even new laws, just anything to slow China down. But you can’t blame a man who wants his nation to enjoy some advantages over other nations of the world. It was the plank of his campaign – America First.
Donald Trump will impose his own image and likeness on the tech sector to such an extent that the local and international markets will buckle under the weight. He will meddle with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and plant the people that will pursue his vision with aggression beyond cohesion. The Social Media that has not been very kind to his kind of lifestyle, with a lot of focus on Iife in the past, and sustained hubris, will come under intense scrutiny. Granted that big tech companies are already flocking around him as a show of support or even penitence but that may still not cut a deal.
Already one of their own is in the inner chambers enjoying some deserved advantages. Elon Musk threw his cash in the fray to campaign with Donald Trump, he couldn’t have made better investment. He is the founder of SpaceX which created Starlink, a satellite megaconstellation with about 6,714 satellites working as at November last year out of a projected 42,000 satellites.
The strength of the US telecoms sector is in fibre to homes which makes triple play an enjoyable feature. But Starlink is designed to provide low-cost Internet to remote locations. In most parts of the world, including the US, dealing with connectivity in underserved locations is spearheaded by the Universal Service Fund. But there is also the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) Program in the US which places fibre optics as the surest connection to high-speed internet. There are fears, however, that the very visible presence of Elon Musk in the Trump administration will influence attention to shift to satellite as the best alternative internet connection to remote and underserved communities.
Elon Musk’s influence will not be confined to America. Already Starlink Services LLC, has coverage in over 100 countries, including Nigeria where it has a cocktail of licences to provide telecommunications services. Starlink and its local partners are dropping terminals across the nation for more affordable internet connectivity. If he markets his connection with the most powerful man in the world, the Musk way, he can only conquer more territories of the world for Starlink and other business operations.
Just the way that Starlink has come into our world with little announcement, some other nondescript operators may still find their way to the country except the industry faces proper regulation. With strong signs already popping up in different places, the telecommunications industry may witness a shaking. The operators, with their backs to the wall, will continue to press for higher tariffs in order to remain in business.
Tariffs therefore will be a major issue this year. The Nigerian consumers who couldn’t do anything about fuel hike and soaring food prices, will suddenly find their voice and vent their anger on the hapless telecommunications sector. The easiest thing to do is to go to court to stop whatever the operators and the regulator may want to do. It is not impossible that the regulator will want to stay on the side of the consumers but how long the industry can continue to take losses on behalf of the consumers or subscribers in this case is an early decision the regulator will have to make this year.
The handshake that goes beyond the elbow means a different thing. The relationship between the operators and the subscribers have since soured, and it shouldn’t be a parasitic one indefinitely. Both parties should nurse a healthy relationship to the growth and good of society.
Without using harsh words for 5G licensing in Nigeria and introduction of its services, let me say that I am not expecting any miracle growth in the sector, for the simple reason that operators are still struggling for funds to remain in mainstream business, without ceding emphasis to what may be termed prestige business. Something has to give for 5G to do well in Nigeria, including victory over hunger and endemic poverty. 5G may not find traction until the later end of the year.
We already observed that technology may inflict pain this year. Let me state what you already know, that Social Media affords people a lot of opportunity and latitude to speak their minds and even release harmful effluents at times. They call it freedom of speech but others have argued that what you call freedom of speech can harm others gravely.
The Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) Act 2015, amended in 2024, has suddenly become a convenient weapon in the hands of those fighting the excesses of loud mouths and light and loose fingers. For careless and even harmless words, some people have become guests to the various security arms or have even ended up in the court. I am a fanatical supporter of the Act because, even now, I still believe that it has the capacity to cure the ills of cyberspace but also want to warn that the content can be interpreted so loosely to trap even ordinary minds without the intention to hurt or hate. Without doubt, there are mischief makers that must be made to reap the reward of their wickedness but, I am afraid, there are a number of simple minds that could pay painfully as the year unfolds. Dear friends, beware of the Cybercrimes Act.
Broadcasting may continue to enjoy some disreputable silence unless something is done urgently to return fire to the industry and ignite low-hanging programmes that can stir the industry to the fore. The Digital Switchover (DSO) must be given a new approach if Nigeria is ever to implement the switchover successfully. This will demand that present desultory rhetorics be changed for something more pragmatic while subterranean manoeuvring for personal advantage and benefits should be given a moral thrashing. May it not be said that Nigeria, with all its human capital, technical competence, and even track record cannot complete a simple process that smaller countries on the continent have since completed.
In all these bubbles, the answer remains simple: the regulators will have to develop the gravitas to speak simple truth to this government, about urgent steps that must be taken for the country to enjoy only the good side of technology and avoid the pain. Very good results are possible without needless torture.
*Aihe writes from Abuja
