While black voters remain overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party, recently analyzed data suggests that black Christians are much more likely to embrace socially conservative positions than other Democrats, which could explain voting pattern shifts.
Researcher Ryan Burge published an article on his Graphs About Religion Substack on Monday titled “2024 Election Post-Mortem: Black Americans, Religion, and the Vote.” The information is based on the Cooperative Election Study data following the 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
The piece examined voting patterns among black Americans based on religion in the past five presidential elections. The data shared by Burge, an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, showed that blacks and all demographic subgroups remain overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party even though they may share some of the same theological beliefs as Evangelical voters, who tend to vote conservative.
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“In some ways, Black Protestants look a whole lot like evangelicals,” Burge wrote. “They take a literal view of the Bible and have views of sexuality and gender that are decidedly conservative. … So, let’s just throw them in with the evangelicals, right? Well, when it comes to the ballot box, the two groups could not be more different.”
Black Protestants’ voting patterns barely budged in the last three presidential elections, all of which featured President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.
Eighty-nine percent of black Protestants backed Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, while the group gave 87% support to both Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024. Meanwhile, Trump’s share of the vote among black Protestants rose from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 and 2024.
On the other hand, Trump’s support among black Catholics consistently increased in the past three presidential elections. Trump’s vote share among black Catholics rose from 9% in 2016 to 14% in 2020 and 18% in 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats’ support among black Catholics steadily dropped from 90% in 2016 to 84% in 2020 and 79% in 2016.
In 2016, 7% of non-religious blacks voted for Trump, while 89% backed Clinton. Four years later, both Biden and Trump saw their vote shares among this group increase to 9% and 90%, respectively. In 2024, Trump’s percentage of the non-religious black vote increased to 13%, while Harris only captured 85% of the vote among this demographic.
Breaking down presidential election results by church denomination shows majority support for Democrats across the board, although some denominations are moving to the right. Democrats have received near-unanimous support among members of the African Methodist Episcopal Church in the past three elections, while Trump has received a negligible share of the vote.
Among adherents to the National Baptist Convention, presidential voting patterns have fluctuated. Clinton received 87% of the vote among National Baptist Convention congregants in 2016, while Biden captured 90% in 2020. Support for Harris among this demographic was significantly lower (67%). At the same time, Trump received 11%, 8% and 33% of the vote among black voters affiliated with the National Baptist Convention, respectively.
Trump saw his support among black voters affiliated with the Baptist Missionary Association drop from 30% in 2016 to 22% in 2020 to 20% in 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats’ share of support among this group of voters increased from 69% in 2016 to 78% in 2020 to 80% in 2024.
Black voters affiliated with the Church of God in Christ have consistently moved to the right. Trump received just 18% support among this group of voters in 2016, rising to 26% in 2020 and 42% in 2024. Meanwhile, Democratic presidential candidates have seen their vote share among this demographic decrease from 78% in 2016 to 72% in 2020 and 56% in 2024.
While the presidential election voting data shared by Burge showed overwhelming support for Democrats among blacks and all subgroups based on religion, additional statistics from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study found that black Christians are significantly more conservative than other Democratic voters.
While 41% of black Christians favor banning the abortion pill by mail, only 17% of all Democrats hold the same position.
A majority of black Christians (58%) support banning gender transition surgeries for minors, compared to 38% of all Democrats. Similarly, a majority of black Christians (70%) believe that schools should secure parental consent before they agree to refer to students by names and pronouns that do not align with their biological sex. Thirty-nine percent of all Democrats said the same.
Support for banning women from going to another state to get an abortion was measured at 25% among black Christians and 8% among all Democrats. The overwhelming majority of black Christians (88%) back age verification requirements for pornography, along with a smaller majority of all Democrats (72%). Support for school vouchers was pegged at 64% among black Christians and 34% among all Democrats.
“African-Americans were denied access to all kinds of institutions in the United States throughout most of American history — so the church became more than just a spiritual retreat. It was also the center of social and political life,” Burge wrote as he reflected on black Christians’ overwhelming support for the Democratic Party.
“I think it’s pretty evident to me from these results that the cultural norms of the median Democrat are far out of step with the average Black Christian,” he concluded.
“This may be a potential reason why some voters have defected from the Democratic party in the last couple of election cycles.”
Ryan Foley is a reporter for The Christian Post. He can be reached at: ryan.foley@christianpost.com
