Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over his Democrat opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, among Arab American voters, according to a recent poll.
A YouGov report commissioned by the Arab News Research & Studies Unit released Monday found that 45% of respondents support Trump, while 43% backed Harris, 4% supported Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 8% either hadn’t decided or didn’t want to answer.
When asked who they thought “would be most likely to successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict,” 39% said Trump, while 33% said Harris, 8% said Stein, 11% said “none of the above” and 8% didn’t know.
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Trump and Harris each got 38% support from respondents when asked which candidate would be “better for the Middle East” overall, while Stein got 9% and 7% said “none of the above.”
Despite the slight edge Trump had over Harris, the report also found that 46% of respondents believed that “racism/hate attacks against Arab Americans are more likely to increase under” a Trump presidency, while only 23% said the same about a Harris presidency.
Additionally, 39% believed that Harris was “more sensitive to the national needs and problems of Arab-Americans in the U.S.,” while 31% said the same about Trump.
Data for the YouGov report derived from a survey conducted of 500 Arab Americans from Sept. 26–Oct. 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.
The report found that, among respondents, 69% believed that Trump was “the most supportive of Israel’s current government” of all the candidates, while 60% said Harris and 23% said Stein.
Regarding a preferred resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 50% of respondents said they supported a two-state solution, 34% supported a one-state in which “Palestinians and Israelis have equal rights,” 9% said they didn’t know, and 6% supported “the current situation, with one state for Israelis and no state for Palestinians.”
Earlier this month, the Arab American Institute published a survey in which they found that Trump had a very slight lead over Harris among Arab American voters (42% vs. 41%), with party identification among the ethnic community being 38% for both major parties.
According to AAI, Arab American support for Harris and the Biden administration had eroded due to the government’s response to the Gaza War and Israel’s efforts to destroy Hamas in response to the Oct. 7 attacks last year.
“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” said AAI President James Zogby, as quoted in the report.
“With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of U.S. voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”
